Last week, the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen first rose because of the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida, which led to yen selling. However, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts kept the dollar weak. As a result, USD/JPY stayed within a narrow range between 148.57 and 146.31.
This week, before the U.S. and Japan central bank meetings, the market is mostly leaning toward selling the dollar. A 0.25% U.S. rate cut is already expected, so if the outlook shows three more cuts this year, the dollar may rebound after falling. But after this rebound, it may fall again.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep policy unchanged at this meeting. Even though domestic politics still affect the market, the impact of tariffs has cleared, and it may be easier for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise rates in the future. Attention will be on Governor Ueda’s comments.
Since August, USD/JPY has stayed in a range, with the upper limit near 149 yen (200-day moving average) and the lower limit near 146 yen (90-day moving average). These levels are strong support and resistance. The market is likely to follow whichever side breaks after the policy events.
Today’s forecast range for USD/JPY: 147.30 – 148.00 yen
This week’s forecast range for USD/JPY: 146.20 – 148.60 yen
Note: This information does not guarantee profits. Please make your own decisions when trading.