At the start of last week, because of rising political risks, people first bought U.S. dollars as a safe option. The euro fell to 1.1454, which was last week’s low. But after the ceasefire agreement, the market changed to risk-on, and the euro went up. By the weekend, the euro rose to 1.1758, its highest level since September 2021.
With the July 9 deadline for mutual tariffs coming, there is a risk the euro could suddenly drop depending on the results of trade talks with the U.S. Last week, German Chancellor Merkel said if an agreement with the U.S. is impossible, the EU will protect its own interests. Trade talks with Canada ended last week and caused the Canadian dollar to fall, so the euro might react in a similar way.
However, depending on the U.S. employment report, people may expect the Fed to lower interest rates sooner, which would cause the dollar to fall and push the euro higher.
After the safe-dollar buying, the dollar has started to fall, and this selling pressure on the dollar may continue. The euro is likely to reach new highs this week, but after reaching those highs, it may fall again. So, it is better to take profits early.
EUR/USD Price Range Forecast for This Week: From 1.1600 (upper Bollinger Band) to 1.1900 (50% retracement)
Note: This information does not guarantee profit. Please make your own decisions when trading.