While expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (FRB) have faded, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike is also expected to take some time, partly due to comments by Prime Minister Ishiba. Because of this, the dollar/yen (USD/JPY) rate has risen to the mid-145 yen level. However, once it reached this level, verbal interventions by officials like Finance Minister Mimura have pushed it back down.
After the August employment report, the FRB shifted its focus from inflation to employment. Although the September employment report showed strong results, bringing a sense of relief, the USD/JPY rate has climbed back to the mid-149 yen level, which was the high point after the “August employment shock.” If the rate breaks through 150 yen, there is a chance that market momentum could pick up in the short term.
However, with the FRB continuing its policy of rate cuts and the Bank of Japan maintaining its rate hike stance, the overall trend is still downward for the dollar/yen rate. If the rate can’t clearly break through 150 yen, there may be renewed selling of dollars and buying of yen.
Today’s USD/JPY forecast range: 149.50 yen to 148.60 yen
This week’s USD/JPY forecast range: 150.60 yen (upper limit) to 146.50 yen (38.2% retracement)
Please note that the above information does not guarantee any profit. Please make your own decisions when trading.