Last week, there was a feeling of relief after US-China trade talks made progress, but US-EU negotiations remained difficult. The euro was kept down by these worries. However, when US CPI came in weak, the US dollar fell, and the euro went up.
After President Trump said he may put new tariffs on many countries in the coming weeks, the US dollar fell even more, and the euro reached its highest price this year, at 1.1630.
Later, when the conflict between Israel and Iran grew, investors bought US dollars again, and the euro fell back toward 1.1490 — but it stayed strong and closed in the 1.15 range.
Last week, President Trump said, “The EU wants to negotiate”, which raised hopes for progress in the talks.
This week, the FOMC meeting will be held. Because the US economic data is weak, the Fed may show a more flexible policy, while the European Central Bank signals it may stop cutting interest rates. So we think the euro may try to move higher.
This week’s EUR/USD range forecast: 1.1450 – 1.1700 (76.4%)
Note: This information does not guarantee profits. Please make your own decisions when trading.