Last week, there was concern about risk-off due to a U.S. military attack on Iran. However, because Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, the market quickly shifted to risk-on, and gold prices went down. Also, progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China, and the U.S. and India, helped U.S. stock markets rise. This made people sell more gold.
This week, important reports will be released, such as the U.S. employment report and the ISM manufacturing and services indexes. Many people are paying attention to the employment report. Last week, Fed Chair Powell said to Congress that if the job market gets worse, the Fed might lower interest rates sooner than expected. For June, it is expected that the number of jobs, unemployment rate, and average wages will get worse compared to the previous month. If this happens, gold, which does not earn interest, might rise because people expect early interest rate cuts.
On the other hand, with the July 9 deadline for mutual tariffs coming soon, progress in trade talks with many countries may keep gold prices from rising too much.
However, concerns about a bigger U.S. budget deficit because of tax cuts, and worries about President Trump interfering with the Fed, are lowering confidence in the U.S. dollar. Because of this, demand for gold will not disappear.
The price level around 3240 is a strong support point. If gold falls below this level, it might drop to around 3200. This level could be a good chance to buy gold at a lower price.
Gold and Dollar Price Range Forecast for This Week: From 3240 (based on Bollinger Bands) to 3355 (61.8% retracement)
Note: This information does not guarantee profit. Please make your own decisions when trading.