Last week, progress in U.S.-China talks made investors feel safe, so the Australian dollar rose close to 95 yen.
Then, U.S. inflation was lower than expected and U.S. stocks went up, pushing the rate to 95.64 yen.
But after news that Japan and the U.S. might talk about fixing the weak yen, people started buying yen, and AUD/JPY went down.
Even though Australia’s April jobs report was strong, with 89,000 new jobs (the biggest since February 2024), the strong yen kept pushing the rate down to 92.75 yen.
AUD/JPY failed again to rise above the 96 yen level, just like in mid-March. This may show a “double top” pattern, which sometimes means the price may fall.
At this week’s RBA meeting, a 0.25% rate cut is expected, but the market already knows about it.
Because of progress in U.S.-China talks and strong jobs data, the RBA may not say anything about more rate cuts.
If Japan and the U.S. do not talk about the weak yen, the rate may go up again and test last week’s high of 95.64 yen.
However, strong resistance around 96 yen could make it hard to rise. If it fails again, a bigger drop is possible.
Expected AUD/JPY range: 92.00 – 94.30 yen
Note: This information does not guarantee any profits. Please make your own decisions when trading.