Reports that President Trump will discuss with President Putin on the 18th raised expectations for a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, which led to more buying of the euro. Additionally, weaker U.S. economic data released that day caused U.S. long-term interest rates to drop, pushing the euro up to 1.0929. However, the euro was unable to reach the high of 1.0947 from last week, and the upward movement was limited.
Expectations for the euro remain strong due to hopes for a change in policies, including Germany’s plans for fiscal expansion. Therefore, the euro’s upward momentum is expected to continue. However, with the upcoming FOMC meeting, caution is needed for any selling adjustments.
The German ZEW index, which will be released today, is expected to be above 50. If it comes in lower than expected, it could trigger selling. Similarly, if President Putin shows reluctance toward a Ukraine ceasefire, it may lead to selling as well.
EUR/USD Expected Range: 1.0970 to 1.0800 (23.6% level)
Note: The above information does not guarantee profits. Make your own decisions when trading.