Last year, the USD/JPY exchange rate started at 140.80 yen and climbed to 161.95 yen before dropping to 139.58 yen. It closed near the high at around 158 yen.
Overall, the exchange rate moved over 22 yen during the year. This follows a similar trend to 2023, where the rate moved 24.70 yen. We expect another dynamic year with significant price movements in 2025.
If Trump acts quickly on his promises, the dollar could strengthen further against the yen, possibly testing last year’s high of 161.95 yen again. However, government intervention might occur around these levels. If monetary policy remains unchanged, the effect of such intervention may be limited.
On the other hand, Trump has previously supported a weaker dollar to focus on trade, and his comments alone could lead to significant dollar selling.
In any case, large swings in the exchange rate are likely. A sharp rise could be followed by a steep decline.
Looking at Japan’s international trade balance, the yen tends to weaken. However, monetary policies suggest the dollar might weaken against the yen. Additionally, major central banks worldwide are continuing to lower interest rates, which could generally push cross-yen pairs downward, putting pressure on USD/JPY.
As a result, after fluctuating, the exchange rate is expected to trend lower over the year.
2025 Forecast Range for USD/JPY: 162.50 yen–138.50 yen
Note: The above information does not guarantee profits. Please make your own decisions when trading.