Today, during European trading hours, the Turkish Central Bank will hold a policy meeting. The market expects an interest rate cut from 50% to 48.25%, a decrease of 1.75%.
However, Turkey’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) recently came in higher than expected, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has shown negative growth for two consecutive quarters, confirming a recession. With the economy worsening and prices rising, the country is in a state of stagflation.
If the interest rate cut is postponed, it may lead to buying of the Turkish lira. However, the situation is not that simple. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a aggressive stance, funds are likely to shift toward the dollar. This suggests that any rise in TRY/JPY may be limited.
TRY/JPY Expected Range: 4.48 – 4.32
Note: The above content does not guarantee profits. Please make your own decisions when trading.