Last week, the USD/JPY pair initially saw buying of the U.S. dollar. Later, as the Bank of Japan took a more hawkish stance, USD/JPY hit a high of 153.88 before starting to fall.
This week, with the U.S. presidential election and the FOMC meeting, many expect a stronger dollar. However, if USD/JPY cannot clearly break last week’s high, that level may be seen as a short-term ceiling.
On the other hand, after the Bank of Japan meeting last week, USD/JPY formed a “double bottom” around 151.79 and 151.80 (after the employment report), which is now viewed as a strong support level. The recent buying back to the 153 range likely reflects anticipation for this week’s events, and positions seem to be lighter overall.
If the price breaks out, it is more likely to move above 153.88, but movements after the election are uncertain, so it may eventually return to lower levels.
For the downside, the targets are around the 200-day moving average at the 151 level, the Bollinger Band lower end in the high 150 range, and near 149.20 for the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
For the upside, targets include last week’s high of 153.80, the upper Bollinger Band at 154.20, and the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 156.50.
USD/JPY Forecast Range for Today: 153.20 to 152.20
USD/JPY Forecast Range for This Week: 154.20 to 149.20
Please note that the information above does not guarantee profits, so make your own decisions when trading.